Opportunities and Challenges for the Chip Community in 2024
Time:2024-01-08
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Opportunities
Opportunity 1: Growth Opportunities in the Global Semiconductor Market by 2024
Several organizations forecast a strong rebound in the global semiconductor market in 2024.SIA predicts global semiconductor sales to reach $588.4 billion in 2024, a 13.1% year-on-year increase.IDC forecasts that the global semiconductor market is expected to witness a 20% CAGR in 2024.Gartner expects global semiconductor revenues to grow by 16.8% in 2024 to reach $624 billion dollars.
Opportunity 2: Downstream end market is expected to rebound in 2024
Several organizations forecast the downstream terminal market to return to growth in 2024. counterpoint expects smartphone shipments to grow 3% year-on-year in 2024. techInsights expects global laptop shipments to grow 11% in 2024. canalys predicts that global personal computer shipments will grow 8% in 2024.
Opportunity 3: Rapid penetration of generative AI phones
A recent report by Counterpoint Research predicts that 2024 will be a key year for generative AI smartphones, with shipments predicted to reach 100 million units. The organization predicts that by 2027, global shipments of generative AI smartphones will reach 522 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 83%.
Opportunity 4: Low-altitude economy policy in place
On December 27, 2023, seven departments in Shenzhen jointly issued "Several Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Low Altitude Economy in Shenzhen", which specifically focuses on attracting and cultivating enterprises in the low altitude economy chain, encouraging technological innovation, expanding the application scenarios of low altitude flight, and improving the supporting environment for the industry, and puts forward 20 specific support measures in four aspects.
Opportunity 5: Consumer electronics products rebound momentum is obvious
The Ministry of Commerce said that in November, cell phones, home appliances and other consumer electronics products rebound momentum is obvious, the growth rate of IC imports for the first time in a year turned positive, imports for three consecutive months of growth, showing that the demand for exports of end-of-life electronic products has improved.
Challenges
Challenge 1: U.S. to Launch Semiconductor Supply Chain Investigation
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on December 21st that it will launch an investigation into the U.S. semiconductor supply chain and defense industrial base to address national security concerns about chips from China. The investigation, which will begin in January 2023, aims to assess the use and procurement of Chinese chips in the supply chain of key U.S. industries to reduce the national security risks posed by China.
Challenge 2: South Korea and the Netherlands Build Semiconductor Alliance
In December, the Office of the President of South Korea revealed that South Korean President Yun Seok-yul, who is on a state visit to the Netherlands, will hold summit talks with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and issue a joint statement announcing that the two countries have formally entered into a "semiconductor alliance" to set up a bilateral consultation mechanism in the fields of economy, security and industry.
Challenge 3: fierce competition in the DDIC supply market in 2024
TrendForce report shows that in 2023, the price of DDIC is mostly flat or slightly declining, and it is expected that in 2024, with the growth in demand for large-size applications such as TVs, gaming monitors, and business notebooks for replacement, panel shipments will grow to a certain extent, leading to a rise in demand for DDICs. In the case of panel prices are still under pressure, it is expected that in 2024 DDIC prices will continue to slow down.
Challenge 4: ASML part of the high-end lithography export license was withdrawn
ASML released a statement on its official website that the export license of its NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography systems has been partially revoked by the Dutch government, affecting a small number of customers in mainland China. after the new Dutch export control regulations came into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, among all the DUV lithography systems, ASML can only export 1980Di products to mainland China.
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Elan Tsao